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当今国际格局的主要矛盾、次要矛盾及其影响分析 作者:高煜贤 吴浩文

关 键 词 :国际政治;国际关系;国际格局学科分类:政治学--国际政治学

摘要/Abstract

距冷战结束已有三十余载。在此期间,国际局势风云变幻。美国的综合实力相对下降。欧洲、日本虽然在经济上有不小的份量,但在政治上却并未发展出与之相匹的自主权。俄罗斯仍想维持其大国地位和影响力,但囿于经济实力和地理位置只得退居二线。以巴西和印度为代表的经济快速增长的发展中国家想谋求地区影响力,实际上却也是在各路强国中夹缝求生鉴于这种情况,国内外学界对当今国际格局的分析大致有四种观点:以美国为唯一超级大国,中、俄、欧、日等为地区强国的“一超多强论”;认为中国已经拥有同美国相当的影响力,并鼓吹“新冷战”的“两极格局”论;认为美、中、俄、欧、日等在未来都将成为“极”,一方没有绝对实力领导其他方的“多极化”论;认为未来在非国家行为体,诸如国际组织、跨国公司发挥重要作用的同时会削弱民族国家,主权国家作用的“无极化”论。这些观点中,“多极化”论更为正确。但至少从当今的国际局势来看,“多极化”并非均衡的“多极化”。目前日本的实力完全不能同中国抗衡,而欧洲也依然在最大限度上寻求同美国等传统西方盟友的合作。在未来可能的“极”中,中国目前是最为成熟和最有实力的“极”。而在国际局势中,越来越多的事件,冲突,战争背后都可以追溯到中美两国的博弈,这实际上是两国势力范围的争交织。因此当今(自2020年新冠疫情至今)国际格局的主要矛盾是中美两国的矛盾,其根源是政治经济发展不平衡。而要解释中美两国矛盾之所以是主要矛盾,就必须解释这一主要矛盾同其他次要矛盾的关系。本文试图在“一超多强”论,“两极格局”论,“多极化”论,“无极化”论的基础上分析当今国格局的主要矛盾为何是中美矛盾以及其与其他次要矛盾的联系并指出新一轮科技革命对于塑造国际格局的作用和当今局势可能产生的影响特别是对我国的影响。


More than three decades have passed since the end of the Cold War. During this period, the international situation has undergone profound changes. The comprehensive strength of the United States has relatively declined. Although Europe and Japan hold significant economic weight, they have not developed a corresponding degree of political autonomy. Russia still seeks to maintain its status as a major power and its influence but is constrained by its economic strength and geographic position, relegating it to a secondary tier. Rapidly developing economies, represented by Brazil and India, aspire to regional influence but, in reality, maneuver for survival amidst the competition of various established powers. In light of this situation, academic circles both domestically and internationally generally hold four main perspectives regarding the analysis of the contemporary international configuration: the "Unipolarity with Multiple Great Powers" theory, which views the US as the sole superpower with China, Russia, Europe, Japan, etc., as regional powers; the "Bipolar Structure" theory, which argues that China already possesses influence comparable to the US and advocates for a "New Cold War"; the "Multipolarity" theory, which posits that the US, China, Russia, Europe, Japan, etc., will all become "poles" in the future, with no single entity possessing absolute power to lead others; and the "Non-Polarity" theory, which suggests that the future will see non-state actors such as international organizations and multinational corporations playing major roles, thereby weakening nation-states and sovereign state functions. Among these perspectives, the "Multipolarity" theory is more accurate. However, at least from the current international situation, this "multipolarity" is not a balanced one. Japan's current strength is entirely insufficient to rival China's, while Europe continues to seek maximum cooperation with traditional Western allies like the US. Among the potential future "poles," China is currently the most mature and capable. Furthermore, in international affairs, an increasing number of events, conflicts, and wars can be traced back to the strategic competition between China and the United States, which is essentially an intertwining contest for spheres of influence. Therefore, the principal contradiction in the current international configuration (since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020) is the contradiction between China and the United States, rooted in the uneven development of political and economic power. To explain why the Sino-US contradiction is the principal contradiction, it is necessary to elucidate its relationship with other secondary contradictions. This paper attempts, based on the theories of "Unipolarity with Multiple Great Powers," "Bipolar Structure," "Multipolarity," and "Non-Polarity," to analyze why the Sino-US contradiction constitutes the principal contradiction in the current international configuration and its connections to other secondary contradictions. It also points out the role of the new round of technological revolution in shaping the international configuration and the potential impacts of the current situation, particularly on China.


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当今国际格局的主要矛盾、次要矛盾及其影响分析 于 2026-02-26 在中国高校人文社会科学信息网(互联网出版许可证:(总)网出证(京)字第052号)刊载,对外公开发表。论文作者为:高煜贤 吴浩文 。特此证明。

  

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中国人民大学出版社

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2026-02-26