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隔代抚养、弹性退休与人力资本 作者:岳纶江

关 键 词 :OLG模型,弹性退休,人力资本代际增长,隔代抚养学科分类:经济学--劳动经济学

摘要/Abstract

本文的研究聚焦于利用OLG理论研究延迟弹性退休改革对于代际人力资本增长影响,同时将我国普遍存在的隔代抚养现象纳入了模型之中。对于退休改革尤其是其中的弹性延迟退休制度以及隔代抚养现象的的综合刻画与理论分析是本文的主要创新点。本文通过理论建模的方式在基准模型中合理刻画了隔代抚养现象,并对于退休改革的综合经济影响作出了分析。同时还在拓展了模型之后分别研究了退休改革对于生育决策以及社保制度的影响。通过比较静态分析得出退休改革会迫使代表性劳动者牺牲个人效用换取人力资本代际增长比率的提升,进而促进社会经济的发展。同时发现退休改革对于社保基金的收支平衡具有重大意义,但对于生育意愿有显著的抑制效应。本文还通过数值模拟的方法对于上述理论分析结论进行了定量验证,并对于检验结论进行了敏感性分析。本文给出的政策建议是,退休改革是当前经济社会形势下的必然,但推进过程中也需要相关政策辅助,尤其是需要缓解退休改革对于生育意愿的负面影响。


This paper focuses on the impact of the delayed flexible retirement reform on the intergenerational growth of human capital by using the OLG theory, and incorporates the widespread phenomenon of intergenerational child-rearing in China into the model. The comprehensive depiction and theoretical analysis of the retirement reform, especially the flexible delayed retirement system and the phenomenon of intergenerational child-rearing, are the main innovations of this paper. Through theoretical modeling, the paper reasonably depicts the phenomenon of intergenerational child-rearing in the benchmark model and analyzes the comprehensive economic impact of the retirement reform. It also studies the impact of the retirement reform on fertility decisions and the social security system after expanding the model. Through comparative static analysis, it is concluded that the retirement reform will force the representative worker to sacrifice personal utility to increase the intergenerational growth rate of human capital, thereby promoting the development of the social economy. At the same time, it is found that the retirement reform has significant implications for the balance of social security funds, but has a significant inhibitory effect on fertility intentions. This paper also quantitatively verifies the above theoretical analysis conclusions through numerical simulation and conducts sensitivity analysis on the test conclusions. The policy recommendation given in this paper is that the retirement reform is inevitable under the current economic and social situation, but it also requires relevant policies to assist in the process, especially to alleviate the negative impact of the retirement reform on fertility intentions.


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论文刊载证明

隔代抚养、弹性退休与人力资本 于 2025-08-28 在中国高校人文社会科学信息网(互联网出版许可证:(总)网出证(京)字第052号)刊载,对外公开发表。论文作者为:岳纶江 。特此证明。

  

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2025-08-28