关 键 词 :展期风险;信用利差;融资政策约束学科分类:经济学--金融学
当前国内宏观经济走势呈现波动态势,结构性分化显著,债券市场整体违约规模及展期债券规模有所上升,债券展期已成为各类企业化解风险的重要手段。为研究展期风险对债券信用利差的影响,本文选取2010-2021年上市公司的公司债作为样本,选用一年内到期的非流动负债比例作为展期风险的衡量指标,使用双向固定效应模型检验了展期风险对于公司债信用利差的影响,并从产业融资政策约束角度切入进行分析,同时考虑流动性和信用评级在影响机制中的调节效应。
通过实证研究,本文得到以下结论:第一,展期风险对于对公司债信用利差具有扩大效应,企业面临的展期风险越高,公司债在二级市场上信用利差越大;第二,产业融资政策收紧会显著放大展期风险对于信用利差的影响,在融资政策受约束的行业中,展期风险对于公司债信用利差影响要更明显;第三,债券市场流动性也在展期风险对信用利差的扩大效应中起着调节作用,当市场流动性得到改善时,会弱化展期风险对于信用利差扩大效应,同时投机级债券对于上述调节效应更为敏感。本研究拓展了当前国内关于公司债信用利差影响因素的框架,同时从产业融资约束角度入手考虑展期风险对于信用利差影响机制,具有一定创新性,有助于发债主体合理匹配债务期限结构,降低企业融资成本。
At present, the domestic macroeconomic trend shows a fluctuating trend, the structural differentiation is significant, the overall default scale of the bond market and the extended bond scale has increased, and the bond extension has become an important means for all kinds of enterprises to defuse risks. In order to study the impact of rollover risk on bond credit spread, this paper selects the corporate bonds of listed companies from 2010 to 2021 as samples, selects the proportion of non-current liabilities due within one year as the measurement index of rollover risk, and uses the two-way fixed effect model to test the impact of rollover risk on corporate bond credit spread. And from the perspective of industrial financing policy constraints to analyze, at the same time considering the liquidity and credit rating in the mechanism of adjustment.Through empirical research, this paper draws the following conclusions: First, the extension risk has an expanding effect on the credit spread of corporate bonds. The higher the extension risk faced by enterprises, the larger the credit spread of corporate bonds in the secondary market; Second, the tightening of industrial financing policies will significantly magnify the impact of extension risk on credit spreads. In industries with constrained financing policies, the impact of extension risk on corporate bond credit spreads is more obvious. Third, bond market liquidity also plays a moderating role in the widening effect of rollover risk on credit spread. When market liquidity is improved, it will weaken the widening effect of rollover risk on credit spread. Meanwhile, speculative-grade bonds are more sensitive to the above adjustment effect. This study expands the current domestic framework on the factors influencing corporate bond credit spread, and considers the mechanism of the impact of extension risk on credit spread from the perspective of industrial financing constraints, which is innovative and helpful for the issuers to reasonably match the debt maturity structure and reduce corporate financing costs.