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基于准自然实验的中欧班列开通对我国城市经济发展的影响研究 作者:刘辉煌 温迪雅

关 键 词 :中欧班列;城市经济;多期双重差分学科分类:经济学--交通运输经济学

摘要/Abstract

中欧班列作为新时代连接亚欧大陆的国际贸易物流大通道,是国家推动“一带一路”战略和城市经济发展的重要举措,但班列的经济效应有待验证。本文以中欧班列开通作为准自然实验,选取2004-2019年期间我国269个地级市的面板数据,通过构建多期双重差分模型检验中欧班列开通对城市经济的影响。结果表明,中欧班列的开通能显著促进城市经济的增长,并且该结论在进行了多种稳健性检验后依然成立。进一步分析发现,中欧班列对开通城市的经济影响存在明显的空间异质性,能显著促进大城市和中西部城市的经济发展,而对中小城市和东部城市的影响小且不显著。因此,为加快城市经济的发展,尤其是中西部地区的城市,国家应优化中欧班列的线路布局,更好地发挥班列对城市经济的促进作用。


As an international trade logistics channel connecting Asia and Europe in the new era, the China-Railway Express is an important measure for China to promote the "Belt and Road" strategy and urban economic development, but the economic effect of the China-Railway Express needs to be proven. Taking the opening of the China-Railway Express as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper selects panel data of 269 cities from 2004 to 2019 to test the impact of the trains on urban economy by constructing the time-varying DID model. The results show that the opening of the China-Railway Express can significantly promote the development of urban economy, and this conclusion still holds after various robustness tests.Further analysis shows that there is obvious spatial heterogeneity in the economic impact of the China-Railway Express on the opening cities, which significantly promotes the economic development of large cities, central and western cities, but has little and insignificant impact on small and medium-sized cities and eastern cities.Therefore, in order to accelerate the development of urban economy, especially the cities in the central and western regions,our country should optimize the route layout of the China-Railway Express and give better play to the role of the trains in promoting urban economy.


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论文刊载证明

基于准自然实验的中欧班列开通对我国城市经济发展的影响研究 于 2022-05-18 在中国高校人文社会科学信息网(互联网出版许可证:(总)网出证(京)字第052号)刊载,对外公开发表。论文作者为:刘辉煌 温迪雅。特此证明。

  

刊载地址:https://www.sinoss.net/c/2022-05-18/623342.shtml

中国人民大学出版社

中国高校人文社会科学信息网

2022-05-18