关 键 词 :长期护理保险;消费不平等;双重差分;相对剥夺学科分类:经济学--保险学
在人口老龄化持续加深与失能照护需求快速增长的背景下,长期护理相关支出具有明显的刚性和不确定性,容易加剧家庭的消费不平等。本文将长期护理保险制度试点视为一项准自然实验,基于2011-2020年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)五期面板数据,采用多时点双重差分方法与Tobit模型,系统考察了长期护理保险对家庭消费不平等的影响及其内在机制。研究发现:长期护理保险能够显著降低家庭的消费相对剥夺水平,有效缓解家庭消费不平等。从实现机制来看,长期护理保险主要通过降低家庭预防性储蓄水平、减轻照护支出负担、提升代际经济支持以及推动消费结构优化四条路径来促进消费的均衡发展。进一步的异质性分析表明,该政策对非农业户籍、60岁及以上、高失能等级以及处于混合给付型试点地区的家庭,其缓解消费不平等的积极效应更为明显。本文从消费分布的视角,为完善社会化照护保障体系和促进共同富裕提供了微观经验证据。
Against the backdrop of deepening population aging and rapidly increasing demand for long-term care, long-term care expenditures are characterized by strong rigidity and uncertainty. Such expenditures may crowd out other household consumption and further amplify consumption inequality. Treating the pilot implementation of Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) as a quasi-natural experiment, this study uses panel data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2020. A multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach combined with a Tobit model is employed to identify the causal effect of LTCI on household consumption inequality. The empirical results show that LTCI significantly reduces households' consumption relative deprivation and thus alleviates consumption inequality. Mechanism analysis reveals that LTCI alleviates consumption inequality by reducing precautionary savings, lowering the burden of care-related expenditures, increasing intergenerational financial support, and promoting the upgrading of household consumption structure. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy effect is stronger for households with non-agricultural household registration, older households, households in pilot regions with mixed benefit schemes, and households with higher disability levels. This study provides empirical evidence for improving the socialized care security system and promoting the goal of common prosperity.