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低空经济面向大众消费者的需求及市场前景分析——以珠三角为例 作者:邓静贤 林烁臻 杨梓荟 房昶聪 马益恒 龙凤好 周晓东

关 键 词 :低空经济;服务场景;消费者需求;珠三角;eVTOL学科分类:经济学--国民经济学

摘要/Abstract

首先,本文以珠三角地区为核心调研区域,综合运用PESTLE分析、SEM模型及Logit模型,系统探寻低空经济面向大众消费者的服务场景需求及市场前景;SEM模型验证政策支持与技术成熟度对消费意愿的显著正向影响,而安全风险的抑制作用强于成本因素;借助logit模型对低空经济服务人群进行异质性分类集群分析表明,深圳、广州等经济发达城市因政策创新与产业配套优势,消费者对低空经济的接受度显著高于其他地区。其次,基于SWOT框架对市场前景分析,指出低空经济的优势在于政策红利、技术迭代与消费升级的三重叠加;劣势集中于技术稳定性不足、成本高企与法规体系滞后;机遇来自全球化协作与场景创新;威胁则包括空域管理碎片化与地面交通竞争。波士顿矩阵分析将低空旅游列为“明星产品”,建议加大投资;空中出租车作为“问题产品”需突破技术瓶颈;低空物流作为“金牛产品”应优化运营效率。最后,提出建议:一是企业需构建“需求层次-技术适配-政策响应”三维模型,针对效率敏感型、体验追求型与民生依赖型客群设计场景生态;二是政策端应完善空域动态管理平台与消费补贴机制,推动“空域使用积分制”;三是技术端聚焦固态电池量产与安全体系构建,强制安装“黑匣子”与噪声分级管控。本研究为低空经济从“试点探索”转向“全域融合”提供了理论与实践依据,助力其在民生服务与产业升级中释放万亿级市场潜力。


Firstly, this article takes the Pearl River Delta region as the core research area, and comprehensively uses PESTLE analysis, SEM model, and Logit model to systematically explore the service scenario demands and market prospects of low altitude economy for mass consumers; The SEM model verifies that policy support and technological maturity have a significant positive impact on consumer willingness, while the inhibitory effect of safety risks is stronger than cost factors; Using the logit model to conduct heterogeneous cluster analysis of low altitude economic service population, it is shown that economically developed cities such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou have significantly higher consumer acceptance of low altitude economy due to policy innovation and industrial supporting advantages. Secondly, based on the SWOT framework for market outlook analysis, it is pointed out that the advantages of low altitude economy lie in the triple combination of policy dividends, technological iteration, and consumption upgrading; The disadvantages are concentrated in insufficient technical stability, high costs, and lagging regulatory systems; Opportunities come from global collaboration and scenario innovation; The threats include fragmented airspace management and competition with ground transportation. Boston Matrix Analysis lists low altitude tourism as a "star product" and recommends increasing investment; As a 'problematic product', air taxis need to break through technological bottlenecks; Low altitude logistics, as a "Golden Bull product", should optimize operational efficiency. Finally, suggestions are made: firstly, enterprises need to build a three-dimensional model of "demand hierarchy technology adaptation policy response", and design scenario ecology for efficiency sensitive, experience seeking, and livelihood dependent customer groups; Secondly, the policy should improve the dynamic management platform and consumer subsidy mechanism for airspace, and promote the "airspace use points system"; The third is to focus on the mass production of solid-state batteries and the construction of safety systems on the technical side, and to mandate the installation of "black boxes" and noise classification control. This study provides theoretical and practical basis for the transformation of low altitude economy from "pilot exploration" to "global integration", helping it unleash trillion level market potential in livelihood services and industrial upgrading.


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低空经济面向大众消费者的需求及市场前景分析——以珠三角为例 于 2025-06-03 在中国高校人文社会科学信息网(互联网出版许可证:(总)网出证(京)字第052号)刊载,对外公开发表。论文作者为:邓静贤 林烁臻 杨梓荟 房昶聪 马益恒 龙凤好 周晓东。特此证明。

  

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2025-06-03