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资本异常流动对输入性金融风险的影响研究 作者:黄子平

关 键 词 :资本异常流动;金融系统稳定;风险监测学科分类:经济学--金融学

摘要/Abstract

随着全球经济一体化深化,资本异常流动对输入性金融风险的影响日益显著。本文以G20国家2007—2022年数据为样本,通过构建面板回归模型与TVP-VAR溢出指数法,实证检验资本异常流动对输入性金融风险的作用机制及异质性特征。研究发现:资本流动中断与外逃显著加剧输入性金融风险,而资本撤回则显著降低风险水平;资本流出方向的异常流动对输入性风险的影响强于流入方向,表明风险传染存在非对称性。异质性分析表明,发展中国家受资本中断与外逃的冲击更显著,发达国家则因金融体系完善而具有更强的风险抵御能力;浮动汇率制度国家在资本中断时风险上升更明显,固定汇率制度国家在资本撤回时风险缓解效应更突出。研究结果为防范跨境金融风险传导、完善差异化的金融监管政策提供了理论依据。


With the deepening of global economic integration, the impact of abnormal capital flows on imported financial risks has become increasingly significant. This paper uses the data of G20 countries from 2007 to 2022 as a sample, and constructs a panel regression model and TVP-VAR spillover index method to empirically test the mechanism and heterogeneity of abnormal capital flows on imported financial risks. The study found that capital flow interruption and outflow significantly aggravate imported financial risks, while capital withdrawal significantly reduces the risk level; the impact of abnormal capital outflow on imported risks is stronger than that of inflow, indicating that risk contagion is asymmetric. Heterogeneity analysis shows that developing countries are more significantly impacted by capital interruption and outflow, while developed countries have stronger risk resistance due to the improvement of their financial system; countries with floating exchange rate systems have more obvious risk increases when capital is interrupted, and countries with fixed exchange rate systems have more prominent risk mitigation effects when capital is withdrawn. The research results provide a theoretical basis for preventing cross-border financial risk transmission and improving differentiated financial regulatory policies.


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论文刊载证明

资本异常流动对输入性金融风险的影响研究 于 2025-03-10 在中国高校人文社会科学信息网(互联网出版许可证:(总)网出证(京)字第052号)刊载,对外公开发表。论文作者为:黄子平 。特此证明。

  

刊载地址:https://www.sinoss.net/c/2025-03-10/647997.shtml

中国人民大学出版社

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2025-03-10