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中美双边贸易与价格时间序列分析 作者:张诚 安锦 王凤羽 张诚 安锦 王凤羽

关 键 词 :中美双边贸易;时间序列分析;单位根检验;格兰仕因果检验;脉冲反应分析学科分类:经济学--世界经济学

摘要/Abstract
本文聚焦中美双边贸易总额,综合运用多种计量经济学方法进行时间序列分析。通过梳理 1980 - 2019 年中美贸易数据,涵盖进出口总额、物价指数及贸易壁垒等变量,经描述性分析揭示贸易额增长趋势及波动节点。单位根检验使数据平稳化,格兰仕因果检验确定变量因果关系,协整检验发现 3 个协整方程,进而构建最小二乘法回归方程。脉冲反应分析显示,中美贸易总额增长率指数和中国消费者物价增长指数对中国全球进出口总额增长率指数短期影响显著,长期影响减弱。方差分解表明,中国全球进出口总额增长率指数自身对其影响最大。研究结果为深入理解中美双边贸易关系提供依据,对贸易政策制定和相关研究具有参考价值。

This paper focuses on the total volume of Sino - US bilateral trade and comprehensively applies a variety of econometric methods for time - series analysis. By sorting out the Sino - US trade data from 1980 to 2019, covering variables such as the total volume of imports and exports, price indices, and trade barriers, descriptive analysis reveals the growth trend of trade volume and the nodes of fluctuations. Unit root tests are carried out to make the data stationary, Granger causality tests are used to determine the causal relationships between variables, and cointegration tests find 3 cointegration equations. Furthermore, a least - squares regression equation is constructed. Impulse response analysis shows that the growth rate index of the total volume of Sino - US trade and the growth index of China's consumer prices have a significant short - term impact on the growth rate index of China's global total volume of imports and exports, but the long - term impact weakens. Variance decomposition indicates that the growth rate index of China's global total volume of imports and exports itself has the greatest impact on it. The research results provide a basis for a deep understanding of the Sino - US bilateral trade relationship and have reference value for the formulation of trade policies and related research.


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中美双边贸易与价格时间序列分析 于 2025-02-10 在中国高校人文社会科学信息网(互联网出版许可证:(总)网出证(京)字第052号)刊载,对外公开发表。论文作者为:张诚 安锦 王凤羽 张诚 安锦 王凤羽。特此证明。

  

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2025-02-10