人口老龄化日趋严重，失能人群的护理需求日益增加，我国先后在不同地区开展了长期护理保险制度试点和扩大试点。基于改进的传染病模型，即SEIR模型，使用中国老年健康影响因素调查（CLHLS）数据库，构建分性别和城乡区域的失能人口规模预测模型，进行模型参数估计和失能人口规模预测；根据收支平衡原则构建社会保险精算定价模型，结合宁波市这一试点城市的情况，对其长期护理保险保费进行测算。发现构建的模型对数据的拟合和预测效果较好，城镇人口相对乡村、女性相对男性具有生存优势。

The aging population is becoming increasingly severe, and the nursing need of disabled population is increasing. The government has recently carried out pilot and expanded pilot long-term care insurance systems in different regions. Based on an improved epidemic model, namely the SEIR model, using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) database, construct a predicting model of different genders and regions, estimate model parameters and predict the size of the disabled population; Construct a social insurance actuarial pricing model based on the principle of balance of income and expenditure, and calculate the long-term care insurance premiums in Ningbo, a pilot city. It is found that the constructed model can well fit and predict the data, and urban population have survival advantages over rural population, and women over men.