摘要/Abstract

生猪价格的剧烈波动会严重影响到生猪产业的健康发展，本文采用季节性分析以及小波分析研究生猪价格波动的季节性、周期性及趋势性特征。研究结果表明我国生猪价格总体上呈上升趋势，但在上升过程中出现明显的周期性及季节性特征，且各周期的时间长度越来越短，表明生猪价格的波动越来越频繁。针对这种情况，本文提出合理的政策建议以稳定生猪价格。

Live hog price fluctuations will seriously affect the healthy development of the pig industry. This paper use seasonal and wavelet analysis methods to analyze the seasonal, cyclical and trend characteristics of swine price fluctuations. Our results show that the hog price is in a rise trend, but during the ascent has significant cyclical and seasonal characteristics , and the time length of each cycle is getting shorter, indicating more and more frequent fluctuations in hog prices. In view of this situation, we propose reasonable policy recommendations to stabilize the price of live pigs.