我国货币市场的非均衡性检验
作者：庞晓波 唐亮
摘要/Abstract
本文主要分析目前我国货币市场的非均衡状况，首先对货币市场相关指标进行动态分析，然后建立货币市场非均衡模型，采用的主要方法是误差修正模型(VEC)，并估计货币市场的价格调节方程，通过对模型的分析和检验得出结论：我国目前货币需求量大于货币供给量，且非均衡缺口有逐渐扩大的趋势。导致这种情况的内在原因是经济体制的不协调，金融市场的不完善，直接原因是银行"黑洞"和股市"漏斗"的存在。解决这个问题应该首先从需求政策入手。也就是说我国货币政策的目标应该侧重于解决货币在银行的滞留问题，即完善货币政策的传导机制，同时也可以考虑适当提高利率水平。
In this paper, we mainly analysis the disequilibrium state in the money market of China at present. Firstly, we analysis the index of the money market by dynamic ways, then we set up the disequilibrium model of the money market. We adopt the method of VEC, contemporary we estimate the price adjust equation of the money market. The analytical results in this paper as follows: at present the money demand is greater than the money supply, and the disequilibrium gap trend enlarge gradually. The inhesion cause is that the economic system is out of line, the finance market is faultiness. The direct cause is the exist of the bank "black hole" and stock market "hopper. To solve this question, we should start with consummate the demand policy, so the money policy target should emphasize particularly on solving the money resort question, namely consummate the conduction mechanism of money policy, at the same time relevance increase the interest rate can be considered.
